A Close-up View of Second Quarter’s Business Performance of Hong Kong in 2019

A Close-up View of Second Quarter’s Business Performance of Hong Kong in 2019 Released by the C&SD

The results of the Quarterly Business Tendency Survey (“QBTS”) for the second quarter (Q2) of 2019 were released by the Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) of Hong Kong on April 26.

 

Business Situation

According to the QBTS, of which the result was based on all surveyed sectors, 12% of respondents have a positive expectation of their business situation in Q2 2019 over Q1 2019, while 13% expect the opposite, 8% lesser than the Q1 2019.

QBTS showed that respondents in the information and communications sector remain positive that their business situation will perform better in Q2 2019 as compared with Q1 2019, relative to the proportion of respondents that expect a worse business situation. Respondents from the construction sector, however, expect their business situation will be worse, as compared to those with positive expectation.

A Government spokesman reminded that the survey result should be reviewed carefully because the result of survey on expectations is likely to be influenced by the current happenings in the community at the time of the survey.

 

Volume of Business / Output

In terms of volume of business/output, respondents from quite a number of the surveyed sectors anticipate business/output to increase on balance in Q2 2019 as compared with Q1 2019. To be precise, respondents that expect business/output to increase are from the cluster of information and communications (the majority), manufacturing, financing and insurance, and real estate sectors. However, a group of respondents in the construction sector expect to see a decline in their volume of output, as compared to those expecting it to increase.

 

Employment

A fair amount of respondents of the surveyed sectors expects an increase in balance in their employment in Q2 2019 as compared with Q1 2019. Precisely speaking, respondents in the accommodation and food services, financing and insurance; as well as information and communications sectors are expecting to see their employment to increase in Q2 2019 over Q1 2019.

 

Selling Price / Service Charge

Respondents anticipate their selling prices/service charges will go up on balance in Q2 2019 as compared with Q1 2019. That said, respondents in the construction sector and manufacturing sector are expecting a drop in the tender prices/selling prices, as compared to those anticipating an increase in tender prices/selling prices.

 

Further Information About Business Performance of Hong Kong

The survey collects feedback and views on short-term business performance from the senior management of about 560 prominent establishments in a slew of different Hong Kong sectors. This survey provides a quick reference (with minimum time lag) to predict the short-term economic performance of the local economy.

The survey includes 10 major sectors in Hong Kong. The 10 sectors surveyed are as follows:

1. manufacturing;
2. construction;
3. import/export trade and wholesale;
4. retail;
5. accommodation and food services;
6. transportation;
7. storage and courier services;
8. information and communications;
9. financing and insurance;
10. real estate; and professional and business services sectors.

Views collected in the survey refer only to those of respondents on their own establishments, instead of those on the respective sectors they are engaged in. It is limited to the anticipated direction of quarter-to-quarter change (for example “up”, “same” or “down”) but not the magnitude of change. Respondents will be asked to provide the expected changes after excluding the normal seasonal variations.

In general, the Survey results are presented as “net balance” – the difference between the percentage of respondents decide to choose “up” and that opting “down”. The “net balance” signals the direction of expected change in the variable concerned. While a positive sign signals a likely upward trend, a negative sign indicates the opposite – a likely downward trend. That said, the magnitude of the “net balance” does not portray the magnitude of expected change but the prevalence of optimism or pessimism.